Biden’s Moment of Truth in Venezuela
By: Kimberly Breier
A note from Morgan:
“Kim Breier is without a doubt the smartest mind in Washington when it comes to Latin America policy. Most recently serving the United States as the Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs under Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Kim helped negotiate several major diplomatic and economic deals from Mexico and across Central and South America. I’m proud to call Kim a friend!”
Spin doctors around Washington, D.C. try to portray the Biden Administration’s Venezuela policy as a wild success. But a clear-eyed assessment of the past three years can only lead to one conclusion: the administration’s policy is on the verge of destroying what’s left of the democratic opposition in Venezuela, and with it any chance of a democratic transition. Time is running out and what the administration does—or does not do between now and April when sanctions relief is set to expire— may herald yet another Biden foreign policy disaster.
Biden began his Venezuela policy by undermining interim President Juan Guaido, who at the time was recognized by nearly 60 countries as the rightful and legitimate President of Venezuela. Biden’s team signaled to allies that U.S. policy would shift away from full support of the interim government and toward accommodation with the Maduro regime. At the same time as it decided to undercut the democratic forces in Venezuela, the Biden administration began the unilateral concessions—granting licenses for international energy companies to begin moving Venezuelan crude oil, even while Biden was shutting down Keystone XL Pipeline at home. The administration also pre-emptively released Maduro’s narcotrafficking nephews from prison. In response, Maduro released a few wrongly imprisoned Americans and then quietly had a few more Americans arrested to replenish his leverage.
As with the other major Biden foreign policy disasters that have contributed to the start of two major wars-in Europe and the Middle East-the driver of the administration’s policy in Venezuela is the mistaken notion that to set the stage for negotiations with dictators, the United States must make preemptive unilateral concessions. Instead of increasing pressure on rogue regimes and negotiating from a position of strength, the Biden team’s preference is to initiate negotiations, and to offer to relieve pressure up front just to get dictators to the table. Instead of viewing negotiations as a means to an end, Biden views them as ends in themselves.
When appeasement doesn’t work, the Biden Doctrine seems to be to make even more concessions and spin them as a win for diplomacy. That policy approach failed to deter Putin in Ukraine, failed to deter Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, and, unless the Biden administration changes course, may to condemn Venezuela to indefinite rule by the Maduro narco-dictatorship.
Not to be outdone by the pre-emptive concessions it granted early on, the administration stepped up its capitulation in October 2023 when the regime and the opposition signed a political agreement called the Barbados Accords. In exchange for Maduro’s signature on the Accords, the Biden administration granted sweeping sanctions relief, including in the oil and gas sector, the mining sector, and secondary bond trading markets, relief that went well beyond what was expected given how limited Maduro’s concessions were in the Barbados Accords. In one fell swoop, Biden gave away almost all of his administration’s leverage that had been painstakingly accumulated over years in the Trump administration.
The agreement contained a number of provisions toward organizing elections in 2024 and the United States injected two additional conditions that had to be met by November 30, 2023: the first was that Maduro had to release U.S. hostages and political prisoners, and the second that Maduro had to lay out a credible process for lifting candidate bans that would allow the leading opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado, to run in a future election.
November 30 came and went, and neither the conditions from Barbados nor the additional conditions for U.S. sanctions relief were implemented by Maduro—and yet the sanctions relief remained in place. Doubling down, the Biden administration decided it had to offer more concessions to Maduro in order to (re)convince the regime to recommit to its prior commitments.
In December, the Biden administration released Alex Saab, a notorious money launderer and regime arms dealer charged with securing weapons for Venezuela from Iran. Saab was also one of the worst human rights offenders in Venezuela, having stolen $350 million from starving Venezuelans to line his pockets. In order to release Saab, the administration interfered in an active Justice Department prosecution and granted Saab clemency for his past crimes. Saab had been one of Maduro’s closest confidants and enablers and his release demoralized the opposition brutally.
In exchange for all of this, the Biden administration secured the release of wrongfully detained Americans and a few opposition figures who had been taken by the regime as extra leverage. Separately, Biden also convinced Maduro to begin accepting deportation flights from the U.S. and Mexico, which curiously began the day after the regime signed the Barbados Accords (though the Biden administration denies the two are connected). President Biden pledged to lead his foreign policy with human rights and to pursue a “humane” immigration policy. But only in Washington can it be painted as a policy success to return desperate Venezuelans fleeing the communist hellscape back to a narco-dictatorship - one that the United Nations says is engaged in crimes against humanity.
In recent days, Maduro has doubled down on his flaunting of the spirit and the letter of Barbados. The Maduro-loyal Supreme Court announced in late January that it is upholding the ban on the candidacy of Maria Corina Machado. Machado, a fearless force in the opposition, succeeded Juan Guiado as the opposition’s champion after winning over 90 percent of the vote in the opposition primary that the regime attempted to prevent from happening. At the same time as her ban was upheld, Maduro has stepped up his campaign of harassment, imprisoning and threatening Machado’s team. The regime is also moving forward a bill in its rubber-stamp assembly, patterned on Russia’s and Nicaragua’s model, that will gut what remains of Venezuela’s civil society and non-governmental organizations.
Maduro also committed to hosting an election in the latter half of 2024, but here we are at end of January and there is no election date set, no credible international observation process, and no indication that there will be either. As if that is not enough, Maduro appears to be using some of the windfall from the Biden sanctions relief to build up his military and threaten to invade neighboring Guyana. Maduro has been mobilizing the Venezuelan military and moving some of his Iranian equipment to the Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, the halls of the Biden administration are rife with barely-contained rumors that perhaps, since the regime won’t allow Machado to run, maybe the opposition could just find another suitable candidate- someone suitable to Maduro, of course. This last instinct is perhaps the most dangerous of all, as it would undermine the will of the Venezuelan people who voted in a highly credible primary election to choose the unity candidate who would lead and represent them. The notion of free-ish and fair-ish election in Venezuela with Maduro in charge was highly questionable at best, but allowing Maduro to get away with preventing Machado from running would remove the last shred of credibility from the Biden policy approach.
And yet, there is still time. The Biden administration and U.S. allies, including in Latin America, have a few months left to turn the tide. The only way to do so is to issue a credible threat of a high, unbearable, cost to Maduro for failing to follow through on all the Barbados commitments. Biden still has a chance to get this one right if his administration can ignore its instincts to give away more and, just this once, hold the line.
Note: The ideas expressed in this article are the personal views of the author alone, and not of any organization or employer.